Saturday, March 29, 2008

Dubai World Cup

Today in the oil rich desert of Dubai the World Cup of flat racing takes place with a staggering £1.8 million up for grabs.
The world's best horse was Dylan Thomas but that mantle has now been given to a horse called Curlin, all the way from America & is (in my opinion) not unbeatable but the bookies are running scared and he is as short as 2/5 with some shops (you need to put 5 quid on to win 2), this is good as this makes him an Essex girl (an easy lay) on Betfair/Betdaq but also gives much higher value to any other horse in the race.
I'm hoping for big performance from Lanfranco Detorri and his stable today, I want to see plenty of royal blue 1st past the post....My selections are a bit of a Frankie lovein but it's their track, their meeting and suits them for just about everything.

1.40 - Blackcat Kitten €50 win @ 4 & Elusive Warning €25 place @ 1.48
2.15 - My Indy €25 place @ 1.71
2.55 - Diabolical €50 win @ 4.3 & Idiot Proof €25 place @ 2.28

3.55 - Literato €25 win @ 4.8, Darjina €25 place @ 3.05 @ Creachadoir €25 place @ 2.56

4.40 - West Win €25 place @ 5.5 @ Gravitas €25 place @ 12

5.30 - Curlin €50 lay @ 1.39, Jilhil €25 win @ 9.8 & Asiatic Boy €25 place @ 2.74

Had no joy in the Irish National last Monday so my account balance is now €1582

Come on Frankie!!!

Good Luck

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Irish Grand National & Doncaster Results

Not a great start to the flat season with only one return in 6 bets but the flat season is a marathon not a sprint (except some of it is a sprint!).

2.50 - Zaahid €50 win @ 4 - €50
Don't Panic €25 place @ 2.5 + 87.5

3.25 - Advanced €50 win @ 11 - €5o
Lady Grace €25 place @ 5.1 - €25

4.00 - Rio River €50 win @ 9.8 - €50
Very Wise €25 @ 5.3 - €25

End of day balance €1657

The Irish National is on at Fairyhouse tomorrow, I had last years winner Butler's Cabin a a decent price so more of the same needed this year.

Most think a "National" is a close your eyes and point a pin or pick something with your girlfriends name in it but there are many stats to follow to shortlist a few hopefuls.

A quick run through some of the key trends for the race over the last ten running -

Only one winner aged 10 or over with 7 & 8 year olds being the most successful age group.
Only two winners over 11 stone with the weight bracket bringing in the most winners being 10 st.
There's no real trainer form to follow so it's all about the horse.
Favourites have a shocking record over the last ten years with 7 of the last 10 winners having had double figured odds.

I'm going for Well Run in this, fits all the stats, is in good nick and has won over course, ground and distance.

Fairyhouse 3.55 - Well Run €50 win @ 20.5 & €25 place @ 4.4

Good Luck Folks


Saturday, March 22, 2008

The Flat is Back

It's time to hang up the the tweed jacket and grandad cap for another year and dust off the top hat n tails the flat season starts today.

I've just recovered from Cheltenham and from what I've heard and read I seem to be in the minority that ended the week in the green so one gives thanks for that.

The flat is my thing, coming from the South of England Ascot,Newmarket, Goodwood and Epsom are in striking distance from my once home. Many an afternoon spent in the company of such greats as Lamtarra, Ouija Board, Sir Percy, High Chaperal,Takeover Target,Rockof Gibralter and recently Ramonti.

But the sunny Newmarket mile is a little over two months away and the Derby and Ascot are still a mark on the calender so the Shiek's helicopter comes into the Costa del Doncaster for the afternoon.

I'll look at three races this afternoon starting with:

Doncaster Spring Mile

A fresh horse does well historically here, who is aged 4 or 5 and is at the head of the market. I shall go for the favourite as his sire Sakhee was a champion miler and a highish draw should help.

2.50 - Zaahid €50 win @ 4
Don't Panic €2 place @ 2.5

Cammidge Trophy

The 1st big sprint of the year and I'll look for a horse that is again fresh and would have needed to have been in the Wentworth Stakes on this track last term or a big field handicap at Newmarket.

Two stand out for me.....Advance won the Ayr Gold Cup and Lady Grace did well at Newmarket last time out, it's a stiff task for her but she's good for a place in my opinion.

3.25 - Advanced €50 win @ 11
Lady Grace €25 place @ 5.1

Lincoln Heritage Handicap

Big race of the day and a big field, again I'm looking for a horse that performed well at a big field at Newmarket and ideally aged 4 - 6.

Two eye catchers here that have been given either a high or low draw.

4.00 - Rio River €50 win @ 9.8
Very Wide €25 @ 5.3

Good Luck Folks....I'll be back on either tomorrow or Monday for the Irish National.


Sunday, March 16, 2008

Cheltenham Result's

Well it's Sunday and the end of a very event full week. It started in sunny Spain at The Ramonti Residence, I st on my balcony soaking up the sun a world away from the gale force winds and lashing rain at home.

I'd spend months MONTHS with my head in form books, stats books, making endless notes on horses and trainers on, watching reruns of races on and youtube. It can get obsessive but there's no point putting your money down with out the information to hand.....anyway that's what I think.

My system is to back horses on the strength of the previous 10 years stats, age, trainer, key trial races, betting patterns and form.

The 1st day my trusty trend knowledge served me well with a handsome €700 odd profit, but with a 5 year old (Katchit) breaking all the trends in the Champion Hurdle it started to put doubt in my mind that it might be one of those weeks......and it was.

So by the end of the days play on Tuesday I'm up and feeling good, I leave the sunshine of Spain and head back to Dublin where I'd watch the racing from the living room, but Gail force winds force the course directors to call it off and the races would be run on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday comes, I'm up, showered, shaved dress in my best and ready to go racing. Nothing beats being there but today was one of those days when all the annoyance of the year at work, the pricks who try my patience day after day, the things I disagree with & even the run up to Christmas 2006 all washed away when I stepped out of the balcony of Channel 4's box and looked out onto the course and in line with the finish line.

A racing fan couldn't get a better view and when I've figured out how to get the photo's off of my phone I'll stick them up. I kinda pride myself on the sporting events I've been to in my time (spent far too much money going to them but hey) but this had to be one of the best....couple of winners would have been nice!!

As much as it was great getting 10 top class races on Thursday, I would have prefer ed the week to have taken it's natural course, there was no rest bite and stakes were a little high for one days racing for me.

I travelled back a little merry to Dublin with my party, I got in about 1am....set my alarm as I had tickets for Gold Cup day and flights & catching up in London to do after.....but no, I was as sick as a pig when I woke up. I got showered and dressed, felt better then left the house only to get as far as the end of the drive and my day was all over. It was tough sending the text to the lads saying I wasn't going to be there.

Gold Cup day - I'd looked forward to it since last year, I should have been in Betfair's tent, swigging a nice pint, chatting away, pocket's bulging but I was at home lay ed out on my sofa with the duvet over me feeling worse than ever.

Voy Por Ustedes and My Way De Zolzan losing created a great big dent in Tuesday's profit and the 1st three races I had interest didn't help so bring on the Gold Cup. I can't remember the last time I'd picked up the Racingpost without there being some sort of reference to the Kauto Star v Denman head to head.

For those who read my pre Gold Cup post I'd pointed out that Kauto Star has had everything his own way this season and I had reservations about his stamina if tested. The race was run how I called it with Denman taking up the lead with a circuit to go. His jumping was sublime and the pace he set forced Kauto Star into mistakes as the turned for home Sam Thomas stoked up the tank and away he went.

Kauto Star battled for 2nd but was a beaten horse 4 fences out.....Denman got me back to winning ways but with 70% of the money bet on the Gold Cup going on Kauto Star it's great satisfaction to prove so many racing journalist wrong but the bookies cleaned up but they didn't clean up from everybody. I'd backed my system through out knowing it was the way to go and it backed me in my hour (or 6 and a half minutes) of need.

Here's the tale of it all.....

Tuesday -

2.00 - Captain Cee Bee €50 win @ 9.6, €25 place @ 3.9 - + €652

Sentry Duty €25 win @ 12.5, €25 place @ 3.95 - €50

2.35 - Nolan €50 win @ 3.25 - €50

3.15 - Osana €50 win antipost @ 14.6, €50 win @ 8.8 - €100 (well pissed off)

16.00 - Bob Hall €25 win @ 23 - €25

16.40 - Garde Champetre €50 win @ 6.6 + €380

Heads on the Ground €25 win @ 7.5 - €25

17.20 - Ashkazar €50 win @ 3.7 - €50

End of day balance €1,891

Thursday -

12.30 - Pass it on €25 place @8.4 - €25

13.05 - Silverburn €40 win @ 9.2 & €25 place @ 3.05 -€65
Verasi €25 place @ 6 - €25

13.40 - The Hairy Lemon €25 place @ 5.7 - €25

14.20 - Voy Por Ustedes €50 win @ 4 - €50
Twist Magic €25 win @ 4 - €25

14.55 - Turko €40 win @ 7.2 - €40

15.3o - My Way De Solzen €40 win @ 6.5 - €40

16.05 - Oedipe €25 place @ 4.2 - €25

Crozan €25 place @ 3.8 - €25

Patman Du Charmil €25 place @ 4.9 - €25

End of day balance €1,571 ouch!!

Gold Cup Day

13.05 - Breedsbreeze €50 win @ 10.5 - €50

13.40 - Song of Songs €50 win @ 8.2 - €50

14.15 - Franchoek €100 win @ 2.46 (you prick McCoy) - €100

15.30 - Denman €100 win @ 2.98 + €398 (told you all along)

End of week balance €1,769

So I'm €610 to the good for the week which taking into consideration the bookies have had the spoils over the course of the week I've not done badly. Thursday was a hard day on the bottom line and I'm thinking if I'm to make this goal of €25,000 I need my system to stand up in the big races and some funny things happened this week but it started well and it ended well.

I loved it this week, a real race fans week but the old foe banked a few quid but not off of me!

So up for the week and up for the year. Aintree in three weeks time so talk to you then.



Friday, March 14, 2008

€uro Millions

A mate back home & I have collaborated on an eachway acca that could net a million €/£.

You need a 1€/£ each way accumulator on the following -

12.30 - Gaspara
1.05 - Breedsbreeze
1.40 - County Zen
2.15 - Francheok
2.50 - Thetotherone
3.30 - Denman
4.05 - Bon accord
4.40 - saint saire
5.20 - Lark wing

If all of those horses place in their races at Cheltenham today for a 2 €/£ stake you'll net 1,000,000 plus, it's just bit of fun but worth a punt!!

Good Luck


Cheltenham Gold Cup Day

Well I don't believe in karma but if I did it shafted me right royally yesterday. Take Tuesday, sat in my own place, watching my own TV, drinking beer that I'd bought = huge profits!

Yesterday - In Channel 4's box on the finish line, flown there and back, free food and drink all day & great company = not ONE efffing winner, not one. I gave back a bit of my profit from Tuesday but just gotta take it on the chin, stick with what I know and it'll come good again.

My system let me down yesterday & some big stats breaking wins cost me dearly, But as the old saying goes "A bad day at the races is better than a good day at work"

Today is the main event but for me it's the worst day's racing with only four races of interest.

Ballymore Properties Nov Hurdle -

Paul Nicholls does well in this race and 5 or 6 year old who won last time out is what will get the nod for me.

13.05 - Breedsbreeze €50 win @ 10.5

Coral Cup -

A lightly raced last time out winner needed here, JP McManus owned horses have a very strong record.

13.40 - Song of Songs €50 win @ 8.2

Triumph Hurdle -

I have a good strike rate in this race and some key stats I follow. Alan King trained, previous winner on the flat, previous winner last time out, winner on the course and distance & winner of the Cleanevent horses ticks all these boxes & if he doesn't win I'll want to know why!!!

14.15 - Franchoek €100 win @ 2.46

Gold Cup -

The race that's been billed as the biggest since Milhouse v Arkle back in the day. Two Paul Nicholls trained horses are the main talking points.....Reining champ Kauto Star and Lexus Chase, Hennessy & Arkle winner Denman.

One is a Maserati and the other is a tank & in this race on this ground I'd prefer a tank. Kauto Star has had it easy in my opinion this year, not once has he been pushed to the line and last years Gold Cup was run at an absolute crawl not testing his stamina.

Denman on the other hand carried top weight round Newbury in the mud to land the Hennessy plus lead from the front in the Lexus at Leopardstown......the other thing in Denman's favour is he'll dictate the race and ensure a good gallop, 2nd season novices have a great record in the Gold Cup and I reckon he'll grind Kauto Star down.

15.30 - Denman €100 win @ 2.98

Thanks and Good Luck


Thursday, March 13, 2008

Cheltenham Day 3

After the cancellation of yesterdays racing , I will stick with my original choices.

For Thursdays meeting , I fancy the following...

In the Jewson Novices Handicap chase, The Hairy Lemon €50 place

In the ryanair chase, Turko €40 win

In the World Hurdle, Lough Berg €25 place
My way de solzen €50 win

In the Racing Post Plate, Oedipe €25 e/w
Crozan €25 e/w
Patman Du Charmil €25 place
Good Luck everyone

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

12/3 - Cheltenham Day 2

I write to you from the balcony in sunny Spain, the sun is going down, the red wine is being opened and the bookies stung....could life get any better, well yes it can & hopefully will from 2pm tomorrow.

The 2nd day of this marvelous sporting spectacle begins with the Ballymore Properties novice hurdle. The Tolworth hurdle is a good guide for this race, we need a last time winner and a horse that has been lightly raced, needs to be 6 years old, in the top four in the betting & won over 2 miles 4.

Well after sifting through the hopefulls I give you Breedsbreeze (a popular choice for one of my ground floor groupies in the office).

2.00 - Breedsbreeze €50 win @ 10.5 & €25 place @ 3.2

Royal Sunallicance Chase -

A race that has had some winners that have gone onto greatness....Florida Pearl, Trabolgan & Denman in the last 10 years. A last time out winning 7 year old is required & our friend Paul Nicholls is very well respected in this race saddling the last two winners & the Irish have a poor record except horses trained by Willy Mullins.

Silverburn comes out on top for me followed by the long shot Verasi

14.35 - Silverburn €40 win @ 9.2 & €25 place @ 3.05

Verasi €25 place @ 6.2

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Big race of the day and in previous years has been won by some of the greats. Voy Por Ustedes won well for me last year and lines up again, the reigning champion has a shocking record when defending his crown, but a yard in form and Choc Thorton on board who cant go wrong at Cheltenham so who knows.

I'm putting in the Tingle Creek winner Twist Magic also as it's a good reference going back.

3.15 - Voy Por Ustedes €50 win @ 4

Twist Magic €25 win @ 4

Coral Cup

This ones a bit of a lottery, a last time out winner over the distance gets the nod

4.00 - Song of Songs €40 win @ 10.5

Peter O'Sullevan Chase

The BBC's legendary commentator has a race named after him and I reckon they should let the old boy have the mike one last time....I remember him calling home Desert Orchid in the 1989 Gold Cup from my parents living like yesterday dubbed the race that stopped the nation, what joy he is and still rocking upto Cheltenham a week past his 90th birthday....bless him.

One for the older Irish horse is this race, Jonjo O'niel fares well as do horses owned by JP Mcmanus that finished in the frame last time out that wasn't favourite!

Long shot but the stats gods say it, so be it.

4.40 - Pass it on €25 place @ 8.4

The Bumper

A Willy Mullins trained 5 year old that won last time out over ground and distance will get my vote.

5.20 - Apt Approach €40 win @ 5.6

Good Luck folks


Cheltenham Day 1 Results

All in all a great days racing & I was pleased with all of my selctions and only two being out of the frame.

2.00 - Captain Cee Bee €50 win @ 9.6, €25 place @ 3.9 - + €652
Sentry Duty €25 win @ 12.5, €25 place @ 3.95 - €50

Good start!

2.35 - Nolan €50 win @ 3.25 - €50

3.15 - Osana €50 win antipost @ 14.6, €50 win @ 8.8 - €100 (well pissed off)

16.00 - Bob Hall €25 win @ 23 - €25

16.40 - Garde Champetre €50 win @ 6.6 + €380
Heads on the Ground €25 win @ 7.5 - €25

17.20 - Ashkazar €50 win @ 3.7 - €50

So I started the day with €1159 to play with and going into tomorrow I now have €1891, so €732 up for the day....cant knock that. I'll get over Osana by the time the football kicks off!

Catch you tomorrow


Monday, March 10, 2008

11th March - Cheltenham Festival Day One

Hello racing fans....If I ever cared about Christmas I'd say the night before Cheltenham was like Christmas eve but as I don't I have to say that the night before the 1st day of Cheltenham is the longest of the year.

I come to you from Southern Spain, sun burnt and y back aching from this morning's golf but my excitement for tomorrow getting a little bit too much to bare. Since Xmas, sorry the King George many horses have been put through their paces over the courses of the UK & Ireland and the endless preps, supplements, tipsters and guides have been heard, run or read and it's now time to see who lives up and who slips up.

The dark evenings recently have been spent with my face in some sort of form book, horse racing being the only sport which history repeats itself time and time again my tactic is to stick to the trends that have served me so well in recent years.

Supreme Novice Hurdle -

The roar of the 1st race will go up when the horses of the 1st race of the day sets sail. A few strong trends to follow in this race. Solid flat form, winner last time out & only 2 runs over hurdles....Key races are the Royal Bond & Doilette hurdle.

I've gone for Captain Cee Bee and Sentry Duty - both have great flat form so have speed, both won last time out so they are in good nick and both are lightly raced over hurdles.

So it's -

2.00 - Captain Cee Bee €50 win @ 9.6, €25 place @ 3.9
Sentry Duty €25 win @ 12.5, €25 place @ 3.95

Arkle Chase -

The years premier novice chase, this has seen so many of the great so on to big things. Dominated by Alan King in the last two seasons but he has no runner this time out so I'm going for Nolan. The horse is in very goo form as his is yard. The Irish have a shocking record in this race and I can't really give any sort of chance to any of them in this race.

I know it's easy to tip a favourite but I don't care who wins it's all about profit!!!

2.35 - Nolan €50 win @ 3.25

Champion Hurdle -

One of my favourite races of the year and one of my more successfull looking back. The old guard have gone, no more Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca not involved and a few contenders to look at.

Two key trials to consider, the AIG hurdle @ Leapordstown (winner Sizing Europe) and the Boylesports (winner Osana) at Cheltenham, the latter is more relevant in my opinion.

Course form needed, a winner last time out required & be 6 or 7 years old....Folks I give you Osana trained by David Pipe. He was my only anti post bet @ 14.5, on the form he's shown it was worth the €50 punt, I've also backed him again today. He's won on the course and on the ground, the Irish have the form over the years but it's our turn I think so he get's my vote.

3.15 - Osana €50 win antipost @ 14.6, €50 win @ 8.8

William Hill Trophy Handicap

Interesting race where the favourites have a terrible record going back and the Irish have dominate.

Negatives for older horses and top weights...a previous Cheltenham place required.

I've gone for Bob Hall trained by Jonjo O'neil.

16.00 - Bob Hall €25 win @ 23

Cross Country -

This marathon run over the Country course has been dominated by Edna Bolger in recent running, the key trial being the PP Hogan Chase.

16.40 - Garde Champetre €50 win @ 6.6
Heads on the Ground €25 win @ 7.5

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle -

Last race of the day and my selections would have been a feast or a famine. David Pipe has a good record in this race as do favourites.

17.20 - Ashkazar €50 win @ 3.7

Good luck folks